1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market clearly defines what constitutes a veto under Article I, Section 7 of the U.S.
The market clearly defines what constitutes a veto under Article I, Section 7 of the U.S. Constitution and explicitly excludes veto threats, signing statements, and Statements of Administration Policy. It provides specific guidance for pocket vetoes, stating they count based on the presentation date and that resolution may pause if pocket veto timing is ambiguous. Official government records from Congress.gov and the White House serve as the primary sources, though fallback to a consensus of credible reporting introduces minor latitude.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
42%
chance▼ −9.5 pts · 24h
The market price dropped from 52% to 42%, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver for the move.
News check pending.
A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.
AI-generated · 13 Nov 2026, 04:35 UTC
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump vetoes any bill or joint resolution between market creation and February 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A veto means the President returns a bill or joint resolution to Congress without signature, with objections, as provided in Article I, Section 7 of the U.S. Constitution, or a pocket veto. A pocket veto will be considered to have occurred on the date the bill or joint resolution is presented to the President, even if the pocket veto does not take effect until after February 1, 2027. In the event of ambiguity over the timing or effect of a pocket veto, this market will remain open until the status of the pocket veto is known. Veto threats, Statements of Administration Policy, and signing statements will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government, including Congress.gov and the White House; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market measures whether Donald Trump vetoes any bill or joint resolution by February 1, 2027. Notably, a pocket veto counts as occurring on the date the legislation was presented to the President, even if it takes effect later.
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump vetoes any bill or joint resolution between market creation and February 1, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying actions include returning a bill or joint resolution to Congress with objections under Article I, Section 7 of the U.S. Constitution, or executing a pocket veto. A pocket veto is counted on the date the bill is presented to the President. Veto threats, Statements of Administration Policy, and signing statements do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no qualifying veto occurs within this timeframe. Resolution is decided using official U.S. government information such as Congress.gov and the White House, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Official information from the U.S. government (including Congress.gov and the White House) or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·