Newsom flips Vance for 2028 president by March 31?
Gotcha risk
Medium1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The title mentions March 31 without specifying a year, whereas the rules explicitly define the window as lasting until April 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET.
Read the full assessment
The title mentions March 31 without specifying a year, whereas the rules explicitly define the window as lasting until April 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET. Beyond this potential discrepancy for readers glancing only at the title, the mechanics are defined with high precision. Resolution relies on a single named source, PredictionMarketOdds.com, checking for four consecutive hourly odds data points where Newsom exceeds Vance. Specific tie-breakers and handling for missing prints, ties, website discontinuations, and 48-hour error-correction windows are clearly articulated.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
37%
chanceWhy it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom's hourly odds value is higher than JD Vance's hourly odds value in the "2028 Presidential Winner by Candidate" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and April 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which the two values are equal does not count as Gavin Newsom being higher and ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for either option (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for Gavin Newsom or JD Vance in the "2028 Presidential Winner by Candidate" listing before April 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing either option from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. If no hourly odds values have been published for both Gavin Newsom and JD Vance between market creation and April 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed end date, this market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom is the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to "No". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for Gavin Newsom and JD Vance in the "2028 Presidential Winner by Candidate" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/president-2028-candidate.html and on each option's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.
Market explained
This market measures whether Gavin Newsom's odds surpass JD Vance's odds in the 2028 Presidential Winner listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for four consecutive hours before April 1, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Gavin Newsom's published hourly odds value is higher than JD Vance's for 4 consecutive hourly datapoints between market creation and April 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET. Equal values do not count as higher and break a consecutive run, while "NO_PRINT" hours are disregarded and do not count toward or break a run. The market also resolves to Yes if the underlying presidential market officially decides Gavin Newsom before the end date. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met, including if no hourly values are published for both candidates. If publishing permanently ceases, resolution uses data up to that point. The decider is the data published by PredictionMarketOdds.com.
Resolution source
PredictionMarketOdds.com
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·