Newsom's Democratic nomination odds dip to 10% by December 31?
Gotcha risk
Medium1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The question title mentions a simple dip to 10% by December 31, but the detailed rules require the odds to stay equal to or below 10% for 4 consecutive published hourly datapoints on a specific aggregator website, rather than a brief momentary touch.
Read the full assessment
The question title mentions a simple dip to 10% by December 31, but the detailed rules require the odds to stay equal to or below 10% for 4 consecutive published hourly datapoints on a specific aggregator website, rather than a brief momentary touch. The rules also clarify the exact timeline through January 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET. Resolution relies entirely on published figures from PredictionMarketOdds.com, with explicit instructions for missing prints, early conclusion of the underlying market, and a 48-hour window for technical error corrections.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
55%
chanceWhy it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom's hourly odds value in the "2028 Democratic Nomination" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com is equal to or below 10% for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and January 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph on that option's detail page. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which Gavin Newsom's hourly odds value is above 10% ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for Gavin Newsom (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for Gavin Newsom in the "2028 Democratic Nomination" listing before January 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing Gavin Newsom from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. If no hourly odds values have been published for Gavin Newsom between market creation and January 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed end date, this market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom is not the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to "No". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for Gavin Newsom in the "2028 Democratic Nomination" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/dem-nomination-2028.html and on Gavin Newsom's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.
Market explained
This market measures whether Gavin Newsom's odds for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination reach 10% or lower on PredictionMarketOdds.com. Resolution uniquely depends on four consecutive published hourly data points rather than a single instantaneous market price.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Gavin Newsom's hourly odds value in the 2028 Democratic Nomination listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com is equal to or below 10% for 4 consecutive hourly values published between market creation and January 1, 2027, at 12:00 AM ET. The market also resolves to Yes if the underlying market is officially decided before the end date and Newsom is not the winner. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met, or if no hourly odds values are published for Newsom during the timeframe. Values are evaluated to one tenth of a percent. Hours with no print are disregarded and do not break or count toward a streak, while an hour above 10% ends a streak. Resolution is determined by PredictionMarketOdds.com.
Resolution source
PredictionMarketOdds.com
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·