Will Broad Front (FA) win the second-most seats in Ávila in the 2026 Spanish general election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules establish an unambiguous resolution mechanism for the constituency of Ávila.
Read the full assessment
The rules establish an unambiguous resolution mechanism for the constituency of Ávila. They provide a clear tie-breaking hierarchy (seats won, then valid votes, then alphabetical order) and explicitly define party list attribution rules. Official reporting from the Spanish Ministry of the Interior serves as the definitive fallback source in case of ambiguity, and a generous one-year longstop date prevents premature timeout issues.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chanceWhy it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the Congress of Deputies of Spain in the constituency of Ávila as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be ranked by the number of seats won by their electoral lists (candidaturas) in the constituency of Ávila, attributed as set out below. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by their lists in the constituency of Ávila, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats and votes will be attributed according to the electoral list on which they were obtained, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Lists will be attributed as follows: PSOE: lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia. PP: lists of the People's Party, including the joint UPN–PP list in Navarre. Broad Front (FA): all Broad Front lists, including Catalunya en Comú in Catalonia, Compromís–Valencian Front in the Valencian Community, and Canarian People’s Unity (UPC) in the Canary Islands. ERC: Republican Left of Catalonia lists, including the joint ERC–Podem lists in Catalonia. Podemos: only lists presented by Podemos on its own. CCa: Canarian Coalition lists, including the joint CCa–1º CAN lists in the Canary Islands. Any other list will be attributed to the party or coalition that presents it, as named in the official proclamation of candidacies. Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Broad Front (FA) will place second in the number of Congress of Deputies seats won in the constituency of Ávila in the 2026 Spanish general election, using specific list attribution rules and tiebreakers.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Broad Front (FA) places second in the official ranking of parties by seats won in the constituency of Ávila. Parties are ranked first by seats won by their lists, then by total valid votes in Ávila, and finally by alphabetical order of the party names. The market resolves to No if any other party occupies the second finishing position. The market resolves to Other if the election results are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Seats and votes are attributed solely based on the official electoral lists regardless of candidate membership or post-election changes. A consensus of credible reporting decides the outcome, with ambiguous cases resolved solely by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Spanish Ministry of the Interior in the case of ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·