Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution criteria are straightforward and clearly defined.
Read the full assessment
The resolution criteria are straightforward and clearly defined. The rules explicitly clarify that resolution requires only that the South Korean National Assembly approve a motion of impeachment, removing potential ambiguity over whether final removal by the Constitutional Court is required. Resolution relies primarily on official government announcements with a standard fallback to credible news reporting, and there is a clear deadline of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
5%
chance▼ −0.15 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Lee Jae-myung, the President of South Korea, is formally impeached by the National Assembly before 2027. The market resolves based solely on the National Assembly's action, irrespective of any subsequent Constitutional Court decision.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Lee Jae-myung, the President of South Korea, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. For a Yes resolution, it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung. The market resolves No if Lee Jae-myung is not formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by the specified date and time. The resolution is independent of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source is official information from the South Korean government. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source
official information from the South Korean government
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·