Obama arrested before 2027?
Current price
1.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.5%
$23.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules clearly specify what actions constitute an arrest and explicitly outline what does not qualify, such as mere questioning, unexecuted warrants, or unarrested indictments. The resolution deadline is a fixed date and time (December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET). Official government and law enforcement records serve as the primary source, with a consensus of credible reporting available as a secondary reference if official documentation is delayed or contested. The criteria closely align with the question and leave minimal room for surprise.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market resolves on whether Barack Obama is arrested by the end of 2026. The market specifies various scenarios that do and do not qualify as an arrest for resolution purposes.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Barack Obama is arrested by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. A qualifying arrest includes being taken into physical custody by law enforcement, voluntarily surrendering to authorities in response to an arrest warrant, being formally booked or processed after detention, being handcuffed and taken to a police station, surrendering at a police station or courthouse with an attorney, or being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring. The market resolves No if Barack Obama is not arrested by the specified deadline. Scenarios that do not qualify as an arrest include an arrest warrant being issued but not executed, brief detention without arrest, questioning or interviewing without arrest, or being named in an indictment without arrest. Resolution will be based on official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Market close date: — End of the period for a qualifying arrest to occur.
Resolution source
official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.