Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market has a clear binary condition and an explicit deadline of December 31, 2026.
Read the full assessment
The market has a clear binary condition and an explicit deadline of December 31, 2026. The main nuance lies in whether a future normalization agreement is formally attributed to the Abraham Accords framework, as countries might negotiate bilateral ties or alternate peace frameworks without explicitly branding them as part of the Accords. Resolution primarily relies on official government statements, though the decider may also rely on a consensus of credible reporting if necessary.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
11%
chance▲ +1.85 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether an additional country joins the Abraham Accords by formally signing a normalization agreement with Israel before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if any country not already part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the Abraham Accords framework by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The agreement must be publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the accords or their continuation. Countries already participating as of June 26, 2025 (UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan) do not count. The market resolves to No otherwise. Resolution is determined by official government statements or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official government statements, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·