Will the KMT win the Taipei and New Taipei mayoral elections?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves based on the official results of the scheduled November 2026 mayoral elections in Taipei and New Taipei, backed by the Central Election Commission.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves based on the official results of the scheduled November 2026 mayoral elections in Taipei and New Taipei, backed by the Central Election Commission. Party affiliation is clearly tied to ballot listing or formal nomination, explicitly excluding independents who might have informal ties. Participants should note the specific clause stating that if any race is won by an independent or third-party candidate, or if results remain inconclusive by March 31, 2027, the market resolves to Other.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
29%
chance▲ +2 pts · 24h
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the outcome of the Taipei and New Taipei mayoral elections that are currently scheduled for November 28, 2026. A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “KMT” or “DPP” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. If the results of one of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other". For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins all races. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Market explained
This market measures whether the Kuomintang (KMT) wins both the Taipei and New Taipei mayoral elections scheduled for November 28, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if candidates representing the KMT win both the Taipei and New Taipei mayoral elections. Candidates count as representing a party based on their ballot-listed affiliation or official party nomination; candidates running as independents are excluded regardless of party ties. The market resolves to No if the KMT does not sweep both races and another qualified party outcome occurs. The market resolves to Other if an independent or third-party candidate wins either election, or if the results are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, falling back to official results from the Taiwanese Central Election Commission if ambiguity arises.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Taiwanese Central Election Commission as fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·