Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
Current price
4.25¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.25%
$1.1M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The definition of an IPO as the first sale of stock to the public on a recognized exchange provides clear criteria, but relying on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a specified regulatory filing or exchange database introduces decider discretion. Participants should note the early resolution clause: if OpenAI is acquired by an already-public company prior to the deadline, the market will immediately resolve to No rather than waiting until the end of 2026. Alternative public listing mechanisms, such as direct listings or SPAC mergers, are not explicitly separated from traditional IPOs, so resolution would depend on reporting interpreting them as a public stock sale.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026. An acquisition of OpenAI by an already-public company triggers an immediate early resolution to No.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering—defined as the first sale of stock by OpenAI to the public on any recognized stock exchange—by December 31, 2026, ET. The market resolves to No if OpenAI does not complete an IPO by that date. The market will immediately resolve to No if OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting alongside official company announcements.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline by which the IPO must be completed (ET)
Resolution source
Official company announcements and a consensus of credible reporting
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