OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
Current price
8.5¢
Implied probability 8.5%
$331.3K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market hinges on OpenAI or an official representative announcing that it has created an artificial general intelligence before the end of 2026. While the deadline is clear, there is potential ambiguity around what phrasing qualifies as an explicit announcement of AGI, particularly if company leadership makes nuanced or qualified statements about reaching human-level capabilities without explicitly using the exact term. In addition, the resolution rules rely on official company statements but also permit a consensus of credible reporting, leaving room for interpretation by whoever resolves the market if coverage debates whether an announcement meets the criteria.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether OpenAI or its official representative publicly announces the creation of an artificial general intelligence (AGI) prior to the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. The market resolves to No if no such announcement is made by that deadline. Resolution is decided using official information from OpenAI and/or its official representatives, as well as a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves to Yes if an announcement occurs by this date in ET; otherwise resolves to No.
Resolution source
Official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, or a consensus of credible reporting
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