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PolymarketResolvedOutcome: YesClosed Part of Bitcoin above ___ on November 8? →

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 8?

Outcome

Yes

Polymarket resolved this market to Yes.

Final Yes price before close 97¢
Known at
$42.6K total volume

Yes price before the listed close date

7 days before
Not captured
24 hours before
1 hour before

Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.

Low gotcha risk

Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment

Show full assessmentShow less

This market features clear and deterministic rules. It identifies an exact data point to resolve the question: the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle closing at 12:00 PM ET on November 8. The specific URL, metric (Close price), and strict comparison threshold are clearly defined, leaving virtually no room for subjective interpretation or decider discretion.

Wording ambiguity
Low
Source discretion
Low
Timing risk
Low
Exceptional clauses
Low

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Price history range

Price path to close

Yes price
94¢96¢98¢100¢00:0108:0015:5823:56
70¢80¢90¢100¢Nov 5Nov 6Nov 7Nov 8
70¢80¢90¢100¢Nov 6Nov 6Nov 7Nov 8

Why it moved before close

Up 21 points · 6 Nov 2026, 09:00 UTC

Coin price

The market price rose from 81% to 96% as Bitcoin climbed 0.67% on Binance during the move hour, making it more likely for the price to remain above $74,000 as the deadline approaches.

  • Largest hourly change: 09:00 UTC, 59% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): +0.7% in the move hour, +0.1% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 39 hours after the move hour.

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 6 Nov 2026, 23:05 UTC

Up 10 points · 5 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC

Close to deadline

The price rose from 76% to 87% as the market moved closer to its November 8 deadline, with time decay the likely driver as the settlement date approached.

  • Largest hourly change: 17:00 UTC, 61% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): −0.6% in the move hour, −0.6% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 2 days after the move hour.

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 6 Nov 2026, 16:05 UTC

Down 21 points · 5 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC

Coin price

The market fell from 98% to 77% as Bitcoin dropped 2.88% on Binance during the move hour, making it less likely to remain above $74,000.

  • Largest hourly change: 15:00 UTC, larger than the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): −2.9% in the move hour, −5.5% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 2 days after the move hour.

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 6 Nov 2026, 05:20 UTC

Market explained before close

This market measures whether the Binance BTC/USDT price is above $74,000 at noon ET on November 8, 2026. Resolution relies strictly on a single 1-minute candle close on Binance rather than an aggregate index or other exchanges.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 PM ET on November 8, 2026, has a final Close price strictly greater than $74,000. It resolves to No if the Close price is less than or equal to $74,000. Price precision follows the decimal places reported by the source. Resolution is determined strictly by the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data and disregards all other exchanges or trading pairs.

Key dates

  • Observation time: — Binance 1-minute BTC/USDT candle close at 12:00 PM ET

Resolution source

Binance BTC/USDT 1m Candles

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Resolution rules at close

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

About this page

A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.