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PolymarketResolvedOutcome: YesClosed Part of What price will Bitcoin hit in November? →

Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November?

Outcome

Yes

Polymarket resolved this market to Yes.

Final Yes price before close 92¢
Known at
$385K total volume

Yes price before close

7 days before close
Not captured
24 hours before close
1 hour before close

Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.

Low gotcha risk

Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment

Show full assessmentShow less

The rules provide precise, objective resolution criteria tied directly to a single exchange and trading pair. Resolution depends entirely on whether any final one-minute candle Low price for BTC/USDT on Binance reaches $75,000 or lower between 00:00 AM ET on November 1 and 11:59 PM ET on November 30. The market resolves immediately to Yes if this threshold is hit, and otherwise resolves to No at the end of the month. Data from other exchanges or trading pairs is explicitly excluded, leaving no room for decider interpretation.

Wording ambiguity
Low
Source discretion
Low
Timing risk
Low
Exceptional clauses
Low

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Price history range

Price path to close

Yes price
80¢85¢90¢95¢100¢03:0107:0611:1115:16
40¢60¢80¢100¢Nov 3Nov 4Nov 5Nov 6
40¢60¢80¢100¢Nov 4Nov 4Nov 5Nov 6

Why it moved before close

Up 41 points · 5 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC

Coin price

The market rose from 47% to 90% as Bitcoin fell 1.72% on Binance during the move hour, making a dip to $75,000 more likely.

  • Largest hourly change: 14:00 UTC, 50% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): −1.7% in the move hour, −2.5% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 25 days after the move hour.
  • 15 related outcomes moved in the same window, 8 in the same direction. Largest: ↑ 82,500 (down), ↓ 72,500 (up), ↑ 85,000 (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 5 Nov 2026, 18:05 UTC

Down 41 points · 4 Nov 2026, 04:00 UTC

Coin price

The probability fell from 81% to 47% as Bitcoin rose 1.17% on Binance during the hour, making a dip to $75,000 less likely and serving as the likely driver.

  • Largest hourly change: 04:00 UTC, 86% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): +1.2% in the move hour, +1.0% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 26 days after the move hour.
  • 12 related outcomes moved in the same window, 9 in the same direction. Largest: ↑ 82,500 (down), ↓ 72,500 (down), ↑ 85,000 (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 5 Nov 2026, 03:20 UTC

Market explained before close

This market measures whether the Binance BTC/USDT price drops to $75,000 or lower during November. It resolves immediately if the target price is touched based on 1-minute candle Low prices.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes immediately if any Binance 1-minute candle for the BTC/USDT pair records a final Low price equal to or lower than $75,000 between 00:00 AM ET on the first day of November and 11:59 PM ET on the last day of November. The market resolves to No otherwise. Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data is the sole deciding source. Prices from other exchanges, spot markets, or different trading pairs are excluded.

Key dates

No key dates are identified in this explainer.

Resolution source

Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute chart

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Resolution rules at close

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT Low prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

About this page

A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.