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PolymarketResolvedOutcome: YesClosed Part of What price will Bitcoin hit in November? →

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in November?

Outcome

Yes

Polymarket resolved this market to Yes.

Final Yes price before close 92¢
Known at
$433.8K total volume

Yes price before close

7 days before close
Not captured
24 hours before close
1 hour before close

Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.

Low gotcha risk

Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment

Show full assessmentShow less

The rules provide clear and objective criteria for resolution. The outcome relies strictly on the BTC/USDT one-minute candle data from Binance within the specified Eastern Time window during November. The threshold is explicitly defined as a High price equal to or greater than $80,000, triggering an immediate positive resolution, with a default to negative if not reached by the end of the month.

Wording ambiguity
Low
Source discretion
Low
Timing risk
Low
Exceptional clauses
Low

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Price history range

Price path to close

Yes price
60¢70¢80¢90¢100¢16:0023:4007:2015:00
60¢70¢80¢90¢100¢Nov 3Nov 3Nov 4Nov 4
70¢80¢90¢100¢Nov 4Nov 4Nov 4Nov 4

Why it moved before close

Up 11 points · 4 Nov 2026, 04:00 UTC

Coin price

The market price rose from 67% to 77% as Bitcoin climbed 1.17% on Binance during the move hour, making reaching $80,000 more likely as the target drew within 3.37% of the spot price.

  • Largest hourly change: 04:00 UTC, 71% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): +1.2% in the move hour, +1.0% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 26 days after the move hour.
  • 9 related outcomes moved in the same window, 3 in the same direction. Largest: ↓ 75,000 (up), ↓ 72,500 (up), ↑ 85,000 (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 4 Nov 2026, 06:05 UTC

Down 10 points · 4 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC

Coin price

The probability fell from 69% to 59% as Bitcoin declined 0.27% on Binance in the hour of the move and 1.0% over 24 hours, moving further away from the $80,000 target and making reaching that level less likely.

  • Largest hourly change: 00:00 UTC, 56% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): −0.3% in the move hour, −1.0% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 27 days after the move hour.
  • 10 related outcomes moved in the same window, 8 in the same direction. Largest: ↓ 75,000 (up), ↑ 82,500 (down), ↓ 72,500 (up).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 4 Nov 2026, 03:39 UTC

Market explained before close

This market measures whether Bitcoin reaches $80,000 during the month of November, strictly tracking the BTC/USDT pair on Binance.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes immediately if any Binance 1-minute candle for the BTC/USDT pair between 00:00 AM ET on the first day of November and 11:59 PM ET on the last day of November has a final High price equal to or greater than $80,000. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution depends exclusively on the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle High price data; prices from other exchanges, other pairs, or spot markets are excluded.

Key dates

  • Start of measurement period: 00:00 AM ET on the first day of November.
  • End of measurement period: 11:59 PM ET on the last day of November.

Resolution source

Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute chart

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Resolution rules at close

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final High price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT High prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

About this page

A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.