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PolymarketResolvedOutcome: NoClosed Part of Bitcoin above ___ on November 7? →

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on November 7?

Outcome

No

Polymarket resolved this market to No.

Final No price before close 98¢
Known at
$39.2K total volume

No price before the listed close date

7 days before
Not captured
24 hours before
1 hour before

Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.

Low gotcha risk

Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment

Show full assessmentShow less

This market features clear and deterministic resolution criteria. It relies on a specific, named public data feed (the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle) at an exact timestamp (12:00 PM ET on November 7). The rules explicitly specify that the final Close price of that candle governs the outcome, removing any discretion or ambiguity regarding which exchange, pair, or metric to evaluate.

Wording ambiguity
Low
Source discretion
Low
Timing risk
Low
Exceptional clauses
Low

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Price history range

Price path to close

No price
70¢80¢90¢100¢03:0110:0016:5823:56
0¢50¢100¢Nov 3Nov 4Nov 5Nov 7
0¢50¢100¢Nov 4Nov 5Nov 6Nov 7

Why it moved before close

Down 70 points · 5 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC

Coin price

The market fell from 80% to 18% as Bitcoin dropped 1.7% on Binance in the move hour, reducing the chance of finishing above $78,000 as the November 7 deadline neared.

  • Largest hourly change: 14:00 UTC, 71% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): −1.7% in the move hour, −2.5% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 34 hours after the move hour.
  • 2 related outcomes moved in the same window, 2 in the same direction. Largest: 76,000 (down), 82,000 (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 5 Nov 2026, 23:05 UTC

Up 51 points · 4 Nov 2026, 04:00 UTC

Coin price

The market price surged from 35% to 88% as Bitcoin gained 1.17% on Binance during the hour of the move, bringing the spot price closer to the $78,000 threshold and making an above-$78,000 outcome more likely.

  • Largest hourly change: 04:00 UTC, 79% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): +1.2% in the move hour, +1.0% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 2 days after the move hour.
  • 3 related outcomes moved in the same window, 2 in the same direction. Largest: 76,000 (down), 82,000 (up), 70,000 (up).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 5 Nov 2026, 02:05 UTC

Down 10 points · 4 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC

Coin price

The market fell from 37% to 27% as Bitcoin dropped 0.27% on Binance during the hour of the move and 1% over 24 hours, making the $78,000 threshold less likely to be reached.

  • Largest hourly change: 00:00 UTC, 68% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): −0.3% in the move hour, −1.0% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 3 days after the move hour.
  • 3 related outcomes moved in the same window, 1 in the same direction. Largest: 76,000 (up), 82,000 (down), 70,000 (up).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 4 Nov 2026, 03:20 UTC

Market explained before close

This market measures whether the price of Bitcoin exceeds $78,000 at a specific time on November 7, 2026. Resolution is based strictly on a single 1-minute candle on Binance rather than an entire day's trading range or other exchanges.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on November 7, 2026 has a final Close price strictly greater than $78,000. It resolves to No if the Close price is at or below $78,000. Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data decides the outcome, and prices from other exchanges or pairs are excluded. Price precision follows the source's decimal places.

Key dates

  • Resolution timestamp: — The specific 1-minute candle closing time used for resolution

Resolution source

Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Resolution rules at close

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

About this page

A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.