Will "Avengers: Doomsday" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 400m?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide clear and objective criteria for resolving the market.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide clear and objective criteria for resolving the market. They designate specific, industry-standard box office tracking websites (The Numbers and Box Office Mojo as a backup) and point to exact tables and metrics to use. The resolution timing is well-defined, resolving upon the publication of final actual figures or by a specific longstop date. Handling for edge cases like delayed release, ties, or preview gross inclusion is explicitly spelled out.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
57%
chanceWhy it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to how much "Avengers: Doomsday" will gross domestically on its 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - 20). This market will resolve as soon as a final (i.e., not studio estimates) opening weekend figure is available, and no later than January 20, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source is the opening weekend figure in the "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the "Box Office" tab of this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page. If The Numbers does not have a final figure by January 20, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the "Weekend" figure for the movie's first weekend on the "Domestic Weekend" tab of this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/) release page. If neither source has a final figure by January 20, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the figure The Numbers reports at that time, or, if The Numbers reports none, the figure Box Office Mojo reports at that time. If neither source reports any figure by January 20, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If "Avengers: Doomsday" is not released by January 20, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve according to the figure for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Rules history
This market will resolve according to how much "Avengers: Doomsday" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If "Avengers: Doomsday" is not released, or there is no final data available, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Market explained
This market measures whether the domestic 3-day opening weekend box office gross for "Avengers: Doomsday" reaches at least $400 million.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if "Avengers: Doomsday" grosses at least $400 million domestically on its 3-day opening weekend. The market resolves to No if the domestic 3-day opening weekend gross is less than $400 million, if no figure is reported by either source by the deadline, or if the movie is not released by the deadline. The primary resolution source is the final opening weekend figure from The Numbers. If unavailable by January 20, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the fallback source is Box Office Mojo. If neither has a final figure by the deadline, existing reported figures from The Numbers or Box Office Mojo will be used; otherwise, it resolves to the lowest bracket. Figures for the 3-day weekend count regardless of the exact geographical definition of domestic.
Resolution source
The Numbers (fallback: Box Office Mojo)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·