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GeopoliticsCloses · in 48 days$25.5K volumePart of: Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by...? →

Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by December 31, 2026?

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Gotcha risk

Low

1 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The rules provide precise definitions for what constitutes a qualifying suspension, naming the five specific basket airlines and establishing clear operational thresholds: at least three carriers must halt all scheduled passenger service to Ben Gurion simultaneously for at least 14 consecutive calendar days.

Read the full assessment

The rules provide precise definitions for what constitutes a qualifying suspension, naming the five specific basket airlines and establishing clear operational thresholds: at least three carriers must halt all scheduled passenger service to Ben Gurion simultaneously for at least 14 consecutive calendar days. It explicitly excludes codeshares, cargo, charter, and evacuation flights, and clarifies that actual flight operations override public announcements. The resolution sources prioritize official flight data from the Israel Airports Authority and airline flight status data, though a consensus of credible reporting is permitted as a fallback. A holder should note that resolution may be delayed by up to 14 days after the December 31, 2026 deadline to confirm whether an overlapping suspension met the continuous 14-day duration requirement.

Resolver
Medium
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

16%

chance

▼ −1 pts · 24h

Yes16¢
No84¢
December 31, 2026 · Yes · 1MO 40.0 H 66.0 L 16.0 C 16.0−24.0 (−60.0%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −14 pts24h · detected 7 Nov 2026, 21:40 UTC

The probability fell from 32% to 18% as part of a broader downward repricing across related airline suspension markets, including the November 2026 and January 2027 outcomes.

  • Largest hourly change: 19:00 UTC, 74% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 54 days after the move hour.
  • 2 related outcomes moved in the same window, 2 in the same direction. Largest: November 30, 2026 (down), January 31, 2027 (down).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 7 Nov 2026, 21:50 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Qualifying Suspensions by at least 3 of the 5 Basket Airlines are in effect simultaneously on at least one calendar day (Israel time) from market creation through the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The Basket Airlines are Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, Lufthansa, Air France, and British Airways. Each counts individually; their affiliates, subsidiaries, and group partners do not count. A Qualifying Suspension is a halt of all Scheduled Passenger Service to and from Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport (LLBG) by a Basket Airline, as actually observed, for a continuous period of at least 14 consecutive calendar days (Israel time), regardless of any announcement by the airline. It qualifies regardless of reason, including security conditions, airspace closures, regulatory instructions, or commercial decisions. Reduced frequencies, or the suspension of some routes while others continue, do not qualify. A Qualifying Suspension is in effect on any day within that period on which the airline operates no Scheduled Passenger Service to or from LLBG. Airline announcements of suspensions, cancellations, or schedule changes will not be considered on their own; if any Scheduled Passenger Service flight to or from LLBG actually operates on a given day, that day will not count toward a Qualifying Suspension, regardless of any announcement. Suspensions need not begin on the same day, but at least 3 must overlap on at least one day within the specified timeframe. A Qualifying Suspension that includes that day may begin before market creation or extend beyond the specified date to complete its 14 days, so this market may remain open for up to 14 days after the specified date; however, only days from market creation through the specified date can be the day of overlap. Scheduled Passenger Service means passenger flights to or from Israel's Ben Gurion Airport (LLBG) operated by or on behalf of a Basket Airline under its own flight number and published schedule. Codeshare flights operated by another carrier, as well as cargo-only, charter, repatriation, evacuation, ferry, and positioning flights, do not count. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official flight information from the Israel Airports Authority and the Basket Airlines (including published schedules and flight status data; airline announcements, such as press releases and travel advisories, may be used only as supporting evidence of whether qualifying flights actually operated); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market explained

This market measures whether at least three of five specified major airlines simultaneously halt all scheduled passenger flights to and from Ben Gurion Airport for at least 14 consecutive days by December 31, 2026.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if qualifying suspensions by at least 3 of the 5 basket airlines (Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, Lufthansa, Air France, and British Airways) are in effect simultaneously on at least one calendar day (Israel time) through December 31, 2026. A qualifying suspension requires halting all scheduled passenger service to and from Ben Gurion Airport (LLBG) for at least 14 consecutive calendar days based on actual flight operations. Affiliates, subsidiaries, codeshares, cargo, charter, and evacuation flights do not count. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. The market may stay open up to 14 days after the deadline to verify the 14-day requirement. Resolution is determined using official flight data from the Israel Airports Authority and the airlines, or a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution source

Official flight information from the Israel Airports Authority and the Basket Airlines, or a consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·