Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
Current price
6.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 6.5%
$1.8M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly define what constitutes stepping down early, setting an explicit deadline of January 3, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The criteria explicitly distinguish between an early departure and a standard retirement at the end of his term, noting that only formal announcements or actions to leave before the term ends will trigger a positive resolution. Resolution relies directly on official communications from McConnell, his office, or the U.S. Senate, leaving minimal room for subjective interpretation.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Mitch McConnell vacates his U.S. Senate seat or formally announces an intention to leave office before his current term concludes.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before January 3, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. An announcement qualifies only if it indicates he will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term, while statements reaffirming a plan to retire at the end of his term do not qualify. The market resolves to No otherwise. Resolution is decided using official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.
Key dates
- Scheduled end of term: — Deadline is 11:59 PM ET on this date
Resolution source
Official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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