Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
Current price
28.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 28.5%
$210K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define how party affiliation is determined and clarify that independent candidates remain distinct regardless of party ties. Resolution relies on a specific consensus requirement across three named major media decision desks—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—with a definitive fallback to the official state election certification if the three outlets do not agree.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Nebraska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether an independent candidate will win the 2026 Nebraska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of run-offs. Candidates running as independents are treated separately from Democrats or Republicans regardless of party affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves as Yes if an independent candidate wins the 2026 Nebraska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate represents a party if they are the official nominee of that party, and candidates running as independents are not encompassed by Democratic or Republican options regardless of any party affiliation. The market resolves as No if an independent candidate does not win. The outcome is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on official election certification.
Key dates
- Election year: Year of the Nebraska U.S. Senate midterm election Date as stated: 2026.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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