Will the Democrats win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
−0.4¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$106.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution is anchored to the winner of the 2026 Nebraska U.S. Senate election, decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, with official state certification serving as the fallback. A key mechanic to note is that the candidate must be the formal nominee of the Democratic Party; candidates running as independents will not count toward the Democratic outcome, even if they have party affiliations or caucus with Democrats. Runoffs and nominee substitutions prior to election day are explicitly accounted for.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Nebraska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party's nominee wins the 2026 Nebraska U.S. Senate election. Independent candidates do not count as Democrats or Republicans regardless of party affiliation, and if a nominee is replaced before election day, the replacement nominee represents the party.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm Nebraska U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. The market resolves No if another candidate wins. Independent candidates are excluded from the Democrat and Republican categories even if they have an affiliation with either party. Resolution is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on the official certification.
Key dates
- Election year: — The market resolves according to the 2026 Nebraska U.S. Senate election.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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