Will the Democrats win New Mexico in the 2028 Presidential Election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify how the outcome is determined, focusing on the candidate winning the most statewide votes in New Mexico regardless of Electoral College mechanics.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify how the outcome is determined, focusing on the candidate winning the most statewide votes in New Mexico regardless of Electoral College mechanics. Resolution triggers automatically once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC concurrently call the race for the same candidate. If those networks do not reach consensus or stop issuing calls, resolution explicitly defaults to the certified results from the state government. A fallback timeout resolves to Other if results remain undetermined by December 31, 2029.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
89%
chance▼ −0.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
The 2028 Presidential Election is expected to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate, or, in the case of an independent candidate, the named candidate, who wins the most valid statewide votes of any candidate in New Mexico in the 2028 Presidential Election. A candidate will be considered to represent a party if they are the nominee of that party. A candidate who is the nominee of either the Democratic or Republican Party will be considered to represent that party, regardless of any additional party affiliations they may have. This market resolves based on the candidate that wins the most statewide votes in the specified state in the 2028 US presidential election, regardless of the subsequent distribution of that state’s electoral college votes. For states using ranked-choice voting or another multi-round system, the vote count from the final round will be used. The nominees of relevant parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. If any named party nominee is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and this market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the statewide New Mexico results of the 2028 presidential election cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution sources for this market are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC; however, the certified statewide results of the 2028 presidential election may also be used. This market will resolve once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC have all concurrently called the state for the same candidate. If one or more of these news organizations does not make statewide race calls for the 2028 presidential election it will be considered to have been struck from this list. If the relevant news organizations do not reach consensus, this market will resolve based on the certified results of the election reported by the state government.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic nominee wins the most valid statewide votes in New Mexico in the 2028 US presidential election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the nominee representing the Democratic Party wins the most valid statewide votes in New Mexico. It resolves to No if a candidate from another party or an independent candidate wins the most statewide votes. The market resolves to Other if the statewide results cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution occurs once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC have all concurrently called the state for the same candidate. If those news organizations do not reach consensus or stop making statewide race calls, certified election results reported by the state government will decide the outcome. Multi-round systems use the final round vote count, and actual electoral college distribution is disregarded.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or certified results from the state government
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·