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PoliticsCloses · in 725 days$7.8K volumePart of: 2028 Presidential Election: Ohio Winner →

Will the Republicans win Ohio in the 2028 Presidential Election?

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Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The rules clearly specify how the outcome is determined based on the highest statewide vote count in Ohio.

Read the full assessment

The rules clearly specify how the outcome is determined based on the highest statewide vote count in Ohio. Resolution triggers either when major specified media outlets (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) form a unanimous consensus or via official state certification if no consensus is reached. Candidate party affiliation, nominee replacements, and multi-round systems are well-defined, leaving minimal ambiguity or decider discretion.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

66%

chance

▲ +3 pts · 24h

Yes66¢
No35¢
Republican Party · Yes · 1MO 67.5 H 75.0 L 58.5 C 65.5−2.0 (−3.0%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −14 pts24h · detected 9 Nov 2026, 12:55 UTC

The price fell from 73% to 59% in a thin order book with zero depth within 5 cents and an 18% spread, making low market liquidity the likely driver.

  • Largest hourly change: 12:00 UTC, 82% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 729 days after the move hour.

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 9 Nov 2026, 13:05 UTC

Earlier

▲ +11 pts · 7 Nov 2026, 20:55 UTCThe probability rose from 63% to 73%, but available data does not provide clear evidence to identify a likely driver for the price move.The news search didn't complete, so no catalyst is claimed.AI-generated · 7 Nov 2026, 21:05 UTC

Resolution rules

The 2028 Presidential Election is expected to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate, or, in the case of an independent candidate, the named candidate, who wins the most valid statewide votes of any candidate in Ohio in the 2028 Presidential Election. A candidate will be considered to represent a party if they are the nominee of that party. A candidate who is the nominee of either the Democratic or Republican Party will be considered to represent that party, regardless of any additional party affiliations they may have. This market resolves based on the candidate that wins the most statewide votes in the specified state in the 2028 US presidential election, regardless of the subsequent distribution of that state’s electoral college votes. For states using ranked-choice voting or another multi-round system, the vote count from the final round will be used. The nominees of relevant parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. If any named party nominee is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and this market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the statewide Ohio results of the 2028 presidential election cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution sources for this market are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC; however, the certified statewide results of the 2028 presidential election may also be used. This market will resolve once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC have all concurrently called the state for the same candidate. If one or more of these news organizations does not make statewide race calls for the 2028 presidential election it will be considered to have been struck from this list. If the relevant news organizations do not reach consensus, this market will resolve based on the certified results of the election reported by the state government.

Market explained

This market measures whether the Republican Party nominee wins the most valid statewide votes in Ohio in the 2028 US Presidential Election.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the most valid statewide votes in Ohio, regardless of the subsequent distribution of electoral college votes. The market resolves to No if a candidate representing another party or an independent candidate wins the most statewide votes. The market resolves to Other if the statewide Ohio results cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, at 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution sources are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, resolving once all three concurrently call the state for the same candidate. If consensus is not reached, resolution relies on the certified statewide results reported by the Ohio state government.

Resolution source

The Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or the certified statewide results reported by the state government

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·