Will the Democrats win the Oklahoma Senate race in 2026?
Current price
1.8¢
−0.55¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.8%
$7.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify how the outcome is determined, defining party representation strictly by official nomination and explicitly excluding independent runs from party options. Resolution is governed by a unanimous call across three named media outlets (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC), with a definitive fallback to official election certification if they do not agree. Potential edge cases like nominee replacements and runoffs are explicitly accounted for, leaving minimal room for ambiguity or unexpected outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oklahoma U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party's nominee wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Oklahoma. Notably, candidates running as independents do not qualify as Democratic nominees regardless of their party affiliations.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 Oklahoma U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. The market resolves No if any other candidate wins the election. Candidates running as independents are excluded from the Democratic option regardless of any party affiliation. If a named nominee is replaced prior to election day, resolution follows the replacement nominee. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, resolution is decided by official certification.
Key dates
- Election year: The year of the midterm Oklahoma U.S. Senate election. Date as stated: 2026.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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