Will the Republicans win the Wyoming Senate race in 2026?
Last captured price
98.7¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 98.7%
$14.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules clearly specify the outcome conditions and candidate attribution. A candidate must be the official party nominee, and candidates running as independents are explicitly excluded from party options regardless of past affiliations. If a nominee is replaced before election day, the market automatically tracks the new nominee. Resolution relies on an objective standard requiring all three named media outlets (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) to call the race for the same candidate, with a clear fallback to official state certification if consensus is not reached.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Wyoming U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party's nominee will win the 2026 Wyoming U.S. Senate election. Candidates running as independents are not encompassed by the major party options, even if affiliated with them.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Republican nominee wins the 2026 Wyoming U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. If a named candidate is replaced before election day, the market resolves based on the replacement nominee. The market resolves No if another candidate wins. Candidates running as independents do not count for the Republican or Democratic options regardless of affiliation. The outcome is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree on the call, the market resolves based on the official certification.
Key dates
- Election Year: — The market covers the 2026 midterm election.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.