Will the Democrats win the Wyoming Senate race in 2026?
Current price
1¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1%
$6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify what constitutes winning as a party nominee and explicitly note that candidates running as independents do not qualify as Democratic nominees regardless of caucus alignment. Resolution relies on an objective standard requiring calls from three major media outlets (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) or fallback to the official certified election results, minimizing decider latitude and timing conflicts.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Wyoming U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 Wyoming U.S. Senate election. Notably, independent candidates do not qualify for the Democratic or Republican party options regardless of their affiliations.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Democratic Party's nominee wins the 2026 midterm Wyoming U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. The market resolves No if another candidate wins. Candidates running as independents are not encompassed by the Democrat option regardless of party affiliation. If a party replaces its nominee before election day, the resolution applies to the replacement nominee. The outcome is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not reach consensus, the market resolves according to official certification.
Key dates
- Election year: — The election takes place during the 2026 midterm cycle.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, with official certification as a fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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