Will the Democrats win the West Virginia Senate race in 2026?
Current price
1.5¢
+0.15¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.5%
$6.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify how the outcome is determined, relying on a consensus call among three major news networks (the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) or, failing that, the official state certification. Party representation is strictly tied to official nomination status, explicitly clarifying that independent candidates do not count as Democrats regardless of caucus affiliation or past ties. The mechanics also properly account for potential candidate replacements and runoffs.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm West Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 West Virginia U.S. Senate election. Independent candidates are not encompassed by the Democratic or Republican options, regardless of party affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party's nominee wins the 2026 West Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the market resolves based on the replacement nominee. The market resolves to No if the Democratic nominee does not win. Candidates running as independents do not count for the Democratic option regardless of affiliation. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on official certification.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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