Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
Current price
84.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 84.5%
$340.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market features clearly defined resolution criteria tied directly to the winner of the 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election, including runoffs. Resolution relies on a strict consensus rule requiring all three named major news networks (AP, Fox News, and NBC) to call the race for the same candidate, with a definite fallback to official state certification if they disagree. Candidate party affiliation is clearly defined by official party nomination, explicitly excluding independent candidates from party totals, and replacement nominee procedures prior to election day are standard and unambiguous.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market tracks whether the Republican nominee wins the 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the official nominee of the Republican Party wins the 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of run-offs. Independent candidates do not count as Republican, regardless of any party affiliation. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the replacement nominee is tracked. The market resolves No if a candidate representing a different party or an independent wins. Resolution is decided when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree on a call, resolution relies on official state certification.
Key dates
- Midterm election year: The election takes place during the 2026 midterms. Date as stated: 2026.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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