Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
Current price
15.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 15.5%
$467.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the outcome condition based on the winner of the 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election, explicitly addressing potential runoffs and candidate replacements. Party attribution is precisely defined, clarifying that independent candidates do not count as Democratic or Republican nominees regardless of external affiliation. Resolution relies on consensus among three explicitly named major news networks (AP, Fox News, and NBC), with a clear and deterministic fallback to official state election certification if the networks do not agree.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election. Resolution accounts for run-offs and explicitly excludes independent candidates from party options regardless of party affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. If a named nominee is replaced prior to election day, the market follows the replacement nominee. The market resolves No if a candidate representing any other party or an independent wins. Candidates running as independents are not encompassed by the Democratic option regardless of affiliation. Resolution is decided when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, resolution relies on official certification.
Key dates
- Election year: — Market applies to the 2026 midterm election and any run-offs.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (fallback: official certification)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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