Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?
Current price
96.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 96.15%
$113.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market establishes clear and objective criteria for determining the winner of the 2026 North Carolina Senate race. Resolution is governed by a consensus of three major media networks (AP, Fox News, and NBC) calling the race for the same candidate, with a reliable fallback to official state election certification if the networks do not align. The rules explicitly account for potential runoffs, nominee replacements prior to election day, and clarify that independent candidates will not count toward the major party outcomes regardless of personal affiliations. There are minimal ambiguity or discretion risks.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm North Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 North Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of run-offs. Candidates running as independents are excluded from party options even if affiliated.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the official nominee of the Democratic Party wins the 2026 North Carolina U.S. Senate election. The market resolves to No if a candidate from another party, such as the Republican nominee or an independent, wins. Candidates running as independents do not count for Democratic or Republican options regardless of party affiliation. If a party replaces its nominee before election day, the replacement nominee represents the party. Resolution is decided when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not reach a consensus, the market resolves according to the official certification.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, and official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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