Will the Republicans win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026?
Current price
2.85¢
−0.25¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.85%
$11.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define what constitutes winning the race and how party representation is determined, explicitly noting that independent runs do not count for a party option. Resolution relies on three named media networks reaching a unanimous call, with a definitive fallback to official state certification if they disagree or delay. Replacement nominee handling is also plainly specified.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Jersey U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party nominee will win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in New Jersey. Independent candidates are not encompassed by the major party options, regardless of party affiliations.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the official Republican nominee wins the 2026 New Jersey U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. The market resolves to No if the nominee of another party wins. Candidates running as independents are not treated as representing the Republican or Democratic parties regardless of affiliation. If a named candidate is replaced as the party nominee prior to election day, the market follows the replacement nominee. Resolution is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree, the race resolves based on official certification.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (with official certification as fallback)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
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