Will the Republicans win the Illinois Senate race in 2026?
Current price
1.1¢
−0.3¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.1%
$17.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market follows a standard, clearly specified election resolution framework. It explicitly identifies what constitutes party representation, handles candidate replacements, and excludes independent runs from major party tallies. Resolution relies on a unanimous call across three designated major media outlets (AP, Fox News, and NBC), with an unambiguous fallback to official election certification if they disagree or fail to call the race.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party's nominee wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Illinois, including any run-offs. Independent candidates are not encompassed by the major party options regardless of party affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Republican Party's official nominee wins the 2026 Illinois U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. The market resolves No if another party's candidate or an independent candidate wins. If a nominee is replaced before election day, the market resolves based on the replacement nominee. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on the official certification.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (or official certification if they do not agree)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.