Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?
Current price
3.9¢
−0.3¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.9%
$142.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the outcome conditions and resolution mechanics. Resolution occurs once three major news organizations (the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) all call the race for the same candidate, with official state certification serving as the definitive fallback if unanimous media calls do not occur. The terms explicitly account for potential Georgia runoffs, define party representation strictly by official nomination, clarify that independent candidates do not count as major party nominees, and detail how ballot replacements before election day are handled.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Georgia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican nominee wins the 2026 Georgia U.S. Senate election. The market accounts for potential run-offs and explicitly excludes independent candidates from party options regardless of affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the official nominee of the Republican Party wins the 2026 Georgia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the replacement nominee represents the party. The market resolves No if any other candidate wins. Candidates running as independents are not counted under party options regardless of any affiliation. The outcome is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree on a call, official certification decides the winner.
Key dates
- Election year: — The election takes place during the 2026 midterms, including any run-offs.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, or official certification if consensus is not reached
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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