Will the Republicans win the Delaware Senate race in 2026?
Current price
2.85¢
+0.4¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.85%
$20K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria are clearly defined and align directly with the question. The market designates three specific major news organizations—Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—and requires all three to agree on the projected winner before resolving early. If there is any discrepancy among the networks, resolution waits for the state's official election certification. Party affiliation rules clearly state that candidates must be the official nominee of the party, excluding independent runs, and provisions are made for ballot replacements and potential runoffs.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Delaware U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican nominee wins the 2026 Delaware U.S. Senate election. Resolution strictly requires party nomination status, meaning independent candidates do not count as Republicans regardless of party affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Republican nominee wins the 2026 Delaware U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. The market resolves No if another candidate wins. Candidates running as independents are not encompassed by the Republican option, regardless of any affiliation. If a named nominee is replaced prior to election day, the resolution follows the replacement nominee. Resolution is decided when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on the official certification.
Key dates
- Election year: — Midterm election year for the Delaware U.S. Senate race
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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