Will the Democrats win the Delaware Senate race in 2026?
Last captured price
97.65¢
+0.65¢ · 24h
Implied probability 97.65%
$12.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify how the outcome is determined, tracking the winner of the 2026 Delaware U.S. Senate election. Resolution occurs as soon as three designated major media outlets (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) all call the race for the same candidate, with a clear fallback to official state certification if they do not reach consensus. Party affiliation is explicitly defined by formal party nomination, and independent candidates are clearly excluded from major party options even if they have past affiliations.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Delaware U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 Delaware U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. Candidates running as independents are excluded from party options regardless of party affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 Delaware U.S. Senate election. The market resolves No if a candidate representing any other party or an independent wins. Candidates running as independents do not count for Democratic or Republican outcomes regardless of affiliation. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, resolution follows the replacement nominee. Resolution is decided when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree on a call, the market resolves based on the official certification.
Key dates
- Midterm Election Year: The election year covering the Delaware U.S. Senate race. Date as stated: 2026.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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