Will the Democrats win the Alabama Senate race in 2026?
Current price
2.4¢
+0.2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.4%
$6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market features clear and structured resolution rules. It identifies the target election specifically, accounts for potential runoffs, and explicitly defines party nominee status, including a clear exclusion for independent runs. Resolution mechanics rely on a unanimous consensus call across three major named media outlets (the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC), with a definitive fallback to official state certification if the designated news sources disagree.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alabama U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party's nominee wins the 2026 Alabama U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. Independent candidates do not count as Democrats or Republicans regardless of party affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the official nominee of the Democratic Party wins the 2026 Alabama U.S. Senate election. The market resolves No if another candidate wins, including the Republican nominee, third-party candidates, or independent candidates running outside the Democratic ticket. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the resolution tracks the replacement nominee. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If these three sources do not reach a consensus call, the market resolves based on official state certification.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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