Will the Democrats win the Tennessee governor race in 2026?
Current price
4.55¢
−2.35¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.55%
$11K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves clearly based on the official winner of the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election. The resolution mechanisms are explicitly defined: it resolves early if the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, or falls back to official state certification if there is any disagreement. Party representation rules are straightforward, specifically noting that independent candidates do not count as Democratic or Republican nominees regardless of personal affiliation, and that replacement nominees will automatically take the place of any earlier candidates.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party's nominee wins the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election. The market resolves No if another candidate wins, noting that candidates running as independents are not considered Democrats regardless of party affiliation. If a named nominee is replaced prior to election day, the market follows the replacement nominee. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, resolution relies on official certification.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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