Will the Republicans win the South Dakota governor race in 2026?
Current price
97.85¢
Implied probability 97.85%
$9.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that resolution tracks the party nominee winning the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election. The outcome resolves as soon as the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, with official state certification acting as a fallback if the designated media outlets disagree or fail to call the race. Clear provisions address candidate replacements prior to election day and explicitly state that independent candidates do not count toward either major party, leaving little ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the "Democrat" or "Republican" options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven't called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party nominee will win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election. Independent candidates do not count as Republican or Democratic nominees regardless of party affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the official nominee of the Republican Party wins the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election. The market resolves No if any other candidate wins. Candidates running as independents are not considered Republicans or Democrats regardless of party affiliation. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the market resolves based on the replacement nominee. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree, resolution will be based on the official certification.
Key dates
- Market end date:
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (or official certification if they disagree)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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