Will the Democrats win the South Dakota governor race in 2026?
Current price
1.95¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.95%
$17.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define what constitutes a party nominee and specify that independent candidates do not count toward party options regardless of affiliation. Resolution requires unanimous calls from three named major media outlets (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC), with a straightforward fallback to official state election certification if they do not agree. There are no unusual timing cutoffs or discretionary judgment calls required.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the "Democrat" or "Republican" options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven't called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election. Independent candidates do not count toward party options regardless of past affiliations.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the official nominee of the Democratic Party wins the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election. The market resolves No if a candidate representing another party or an independent candidate wins. Candidates running as independents are excluded from party options even if they have a party affiliation. The decision is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree on the call, the market resolves based on the official certification.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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