Will the Republicans win the South Carolina governor race in 2026?
Current price
93.5¢
−1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 93.5%
$17.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that resolution requires a consensus call from three named media outlets (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) or, failing that, the official certified election results. Nominee status and party affiliation rules are explicitly defined, including clear guidelines that independent candidates do not count as party nominees even if affiliated. Candidate substitution before election day is also clearly accounted for.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 South Carolina gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the "Democrat" or "Republican" options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven't called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 South Carolina gubernatorial election. A notable aspect is that candidates running as independents are excluded from the Republican option even if they hold an affiliation with the party.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Republican nominee wins the 2026 South Carolina gubernatorial election. The market resolves No if a candidate representing another party or running as an independent wins. Candidates running as independents do not count for the Republican or Democratic options regardless of their party affiliations. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the market follows the replacement nominee. Resolution is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree on a call, resolution relies on official certification.
Key dates
- Market End Date: — The latest date by which the market is scheduled to resolve.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (or official certification if they do not all call the race for the same candidate)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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