Will the Democrats win the South Carolina governor race in 2026?
Current price
4.85¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.85%
$8.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define what constitutes winning for the party, requiring the candidate to be the official nominee and explicitly excluding independent runs from party attribution. Resolution is anchored to three named major media decision desks—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—requiring a unanimous call across all three to resolve early, with an unambiguous fallback to the official certified election results if a consensus call is not reached.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 South Carolina gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the "Democrat" or "Republican" options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven't called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 South Carolina gubernatorial election. Independent candidates do not qualify under the party option regardless of their affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the official Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 South Carolina gubernatorial election. Candidates running as independents do not count toward the Democratic outcome, regardless of party affiliation. The market resolves No if any other candidate wins the race. The outcome is determined by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC once all three outlets call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on the official certification.
Key dates
- Election year: The race takes place during the 2026 election cycle.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, and official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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