Will the Republicans win the Pennsylvania governor race in 2026?
Current price
2.4¢
+0.2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.4%
$46.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules clearly define how party affiliation is determined, specifying that candidates must be the official party nominee and that independent candidates are excluded even if previously affiliated with a major party. Resolution relies on a defined consensus of three major media networks (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC), with a clear fallback to official state certification if the networks do not agree. Candidate substitutions before election day are also clearly accounted for.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election. Candidates running as independents are excluded from party options regardless of party affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the official nominee of the Republican Party wins the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election. If a named candidate is replaced as the party nominee prior to election day, the market follows the replacement nominee. The market resolves to No if another party's candidate or an independent wins. Candidates running as independents do not count for the Republican option regardless of party affiliation. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on official certification.
Key dates
- Election year: — The election takes place in 2026.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.