Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
Current price
27.5¢
−0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 27.5%
$206.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide clear and objective resolution criteria for the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election. Resolution relies on a unanimous call across three specified media networks (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC), with a clear fallback to official state certification if the networks disagree. Party nomination status, independent candidate distinctions, and potential nominee replacements are explicitly defined, leaving minimal room for ambiguity or discretionary calls.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party nominee will win the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election. It specifies that candidates running as independents are not covered by party options regardless of party affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election. If a named candidate is replaced as the party's nominee before election day, the resolution applies to the replacement nominee. The market resolves No if any other candidate wins the race, including candidates running as independents regardless of their party affiliation. Resolution is decided when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on the official certification.
Key dates
- Election year: — The market specifies the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (or official certification if the three sources do not agree)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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