Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
Current price
72.5¢
+1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 72.5%
$237.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market has well-defined resolution criteria tied to the outcome of the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election. Resolution relies on three specific major news networks—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—all projecting the same winner, with an explicit fallback to official state certification if the networks do not reach consensus. Party affiliation is strictly defined by official party nomination, expressly excluding independent runs even if the candidate has past party ties. Replacement nominee rules are clearly spelled out, leaving minimal room for ambiguity or unexpected outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election. Independent candidates do not count as Democrats or Republicans regardless of party affiliation, and named candidates will be updated if a party replaces its nominee before election day.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the official nominee of the Democratic Party wins the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election. The market resolves to No if any other candidate wins. Candidates running as independents are not encompassed by party options regardless of affiliation. If a named candidate is replaced as their party's nominee before election day, the replacement nominee represents the party. Resolution is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on official certification.
Key dates
- Election year: Year of the Ohio gubernatorial election Date as stated: 2026.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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