Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026?
Current price
93.75¢
+0.6¢ · 24h
Implied probability 93.75%
$25K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The market has straightforward resolution criteria tied directly to the winner of the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election. It clearly defines party representation based on official party nomination, explicitly clarifying that independent runs do not qualify under major party options and that any replacement nominees will automatically take over the party's contract line. The resolution mechanics are explicitly structured: it resolves early if the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, and otherwise defaults strictly to the state's official certified election results, leaving virtually no room for decider discretion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican nominee wins the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election. Candidates running as independents are not encompassed by the Republican option, regardless of party affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Republican nominee wins the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election. A candidate represents the party if they are the official nominee, including any replacement nominee prior to election day, while independent candidates do not count. The market resolves No if another party's candidate wins. The resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on the official certification.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (or official certification if consensus is not reached)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.