Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026?
Current price
5.25¢
−0.15¢ · 24h
Implied probability 5.25%
$23.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly outline the conditions and sources used to determine the outcome. Resolution relies on a consensus call from three designated media networks (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC), with an unambiguous fallback to official state certification if the networks do not agree. Party affiliation rules explicitly define that only the official party nominee qualifies, excluding independent runs even if the candidate has past or present ties to the party, and handle potential nominee replacements cleanly.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election, noting that independent candidates are excluded from party options even if affiliated with a party.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election. If a named nominee is replaced prior to election day, the market resolves based on the replacement nominee. The market resolves No if any other candidate wins. Candidates running as independents are not counted under party options regardless of affiliation. Resolution is decided when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree on a call, the market resolves based on the official certification.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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