Will the Republicans win the Nebraska governor race in 2026?
Last captured price
89.5¢
+0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 89.5%
$15.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that the market resolves based on the official party nominee who wins the election, with explicit handling for candidate replacements and independent runs. Resolution relies on an objective consensus among three named major media outlets (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC), with a definitive fallback to official state certification if the media sources do not reach a unanimous call.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nebraska gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party's nominee wins the 2026 Nebraska gubernatorial election. Independent candidates do not count as Republican or Democratic nominees regardless of their party affiliations.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Republican nominee wins the 2026 Nebraska gubernatorial race. A candidate represents the party only if they are the official nominee, and if a nominee is replaced before election day, the replacement represents the party. The market resolves No if any other candidate wins. Independent candidates are not encompassed by the Republican or Democratic options. Resolution is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree, official certification decides the outcome.
Key dates
- Election year: — The market evaluates the 2026 gubernatorial election.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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