Will the Republicans win the Minnesota governor race in 2026?
Current price
5.1¢
−0.85¢ · 24h
Implied probability 5.1%
$50.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market has clear and objective resolution criteria. It identifies the target election and explicitly defines party affiliation based on official party nomination, clarifying that independent candidates do not count toward the major party options. Resolution relies on three specified major media networks (the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) reaching consensus on the winner, with a clear fallback to the state's official election certification if unanimous media calls do not occur.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party's nominee will win the Minnesota gubernatorial election in 2026. The resolution depends on the official winner, with a specific process for determining when the race is called by news sources.
How it resolves
This market resolves Yes if the Republican Party's nominee wins the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election. A candidate is considered to represent a party if they are that party's nominee. Candidates running as independents are not counted as Republican, regardless of any party affiliation. This market resolves No if a candidate other than the Republican nominee wins the election. The market resolves once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If these three sources do not all call the race for the same candidate, the market will resolve based on the official certification of the election results.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.