Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?
Last captured price
95.65¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 95.65%
$43.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market has well-defined resolution mechanics and unambiguous criteria. It specifically defines party representation as being the official party nominee, explicitly clarifying that independent runs do not count for party options even if the candidate has ties to that party. Resolution relies on clear media consensus—requiring all three of the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC to call the race for the same candidate—with an unambiguous fallback to official state certification if the media sources do not reach complete agreement. Replacement of nominees prior to election day is handled cleanly without altering the market's party-level intent.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election. It excludes independent candidates regardless of party affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election. A candidate represents the party if they are the party's nominee, including any replacement nominee chosen before election day. The market resolves No if another candidate wins, noting that candidates running as independents do not count for the Democratic option regardless of party affiliation. The outcome is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on the official certification.
Key dates
- Market end date:
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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