Will the Republicans win the Maryland governor race in 2026?
Current price
2.2¢
+0.4¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.2%
$9.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market has clear, standard rules determining party affiliation based strictly on official nomination rather than informal association. Resolution relies on consensus among three specific major news networks (AP, Fox News, and NBC), with an explicit fallback to official state certification if the networks do not agree. Potential nominee replacements before the election are also clearly accounted for.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party nominee will win the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election. Candidates running as independents are not encompassed by the Republican option, regardless of party affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election. It resolves to No if any other candidate wins. A candidate represents the Republican Party only if they are the party's official nominee; independent candidates do not count. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the market follows the replacement nominee. Resolution is decided when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not agree on a call, official certification determines the outcome.
Key dates
- Market end date: — Latest stated date for market resolution.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.