Will the Republicans win the Maine governor race in 2026?
Current price
4.5¢
+0.45¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.5%
$12.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that resolution tracks the winner of the 2026 Maine gubernatorial race. Party affiliation is strictly defined by formal nomination, with independent candidates explicitly excluded even if they have party ties. The resolution mechanism relies on a consensus call across three designated major media outlets (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC), with official state election certification serving as the explicit fallback if they disagree or fail to call it uniformly. There are no unusual edge clauses or subjective resolution criteria.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Maine gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican nominee wins the 2026 Maine gubernatorial election.
How it resolves
The market resolves as Yes if the Republican nominee wins the 2026 Maine gubernatorial election. If a named nominee is replaced prior to election day, the replacement nominee represents the party. Independent candidates do not count as Republican or Democrat regardless of affiliation. The market resolves as No if another party's nominee or an independent candidate wins. The outcome is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, official certification decides the outcome.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or official certification
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
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