Will the Republicans win the Kansas governor race in 2026?
Current price
75.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 75.5%
$42.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market clearly defines party nomination criteria, explicitly noting that independent candidates are excluded from major party options even if affiliated. Resolution relies on an objective trigger: unanimous consensus calls from three specific major news networks (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC), with official state certification serving as the explicit fallback if the networks do not agree. Candidate replacement mechanics are explicitly accounted for prior to election day.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party nominee will win the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election. Independent candidates do not count as Republican or Democrat regardless of party affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the official nominee of the Republican Party wins the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election. The market resolves No if another candidate wins, including independent candidates regardless of any Republican affiliation. If a named candidate is replaced as the party nominee prior to election day, resolution follows the replacement nominee. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on the official certification.
Key dates
- Election Year: Year of the Kansas gubernatorial election Date as stated: 2026.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (fallback: official certification)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.